YWO NEWS | COMMODITIES | DEEP DIVE / ANALYSIS
Crude oil swung from a sharp spike to near-flat on Thursday after the U.S. Central Command confirmed it had launched fresh strikes against Iran in response to Tehran’s attacks on commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz, CNBC reported. By Thursday morning, Brent crude futures traded just 53 cents higher at $78.55 a barrel, and WTI futures rose 35 cents to $73.87 — modest moves that follow Wednesday’s outsized session, when Brent settled up 5.4% and WTI gained 4.4%, the biggest single-day advances for each contract since May 4 and June 1, respectively, according to CNBC.
The more modest price movements in early Thursday trading followed Wednesday’s sharp gains as market participants continued to assess developments. . Wednesday’s 5.4% Brent rally was followed by more limited price movements on Thursday as market participants continued to monitor developments. .
Wednesday’s Spike and the Strait of Hormuz Premium
The catalyst was specific. U.S. CENTCOM confirmed Wednesday that the latest round of strikes on Iran came directly in response to Iranian attacks on commercial shipping transiting the Strait of Hormuz, CNBC reported. President Trump separately said the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was “over” and signalled he was no longer interested in negotiating a deal with Tehran — two statements that removed whatever diplomatic buffer the market had been carrying.
Saxo, cited by CNBC, framed the repricing directly:
“The market is again being forced to price the risk that renewed attacks on shipping, or a broader breakdown in US-Iran relations, could slow the normalisation of flows through the Strait of Hormuz.”
Saxo added that, as one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, “even limited disruption can have an outsized impact on prompt pricing, freight costs and market sentiment,” CNBC reported.
The Hormuz channel is not new to geopolitical pricing, but the confirmation that Iranian forces had been actively targeting commercial vessels gave Wednesday’s rally a concrete supply-risk anchor rather than a purely speculative one. Market participants continue to monitor how geopolitical developments may influence energy markets.
From Spike to Drift: Thursday’s Tentative Session
| Contract | Thursday Level | Wednesday Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude (BZ1!) | $78.55/bbl (+$0.53) | +5.4% |
| WTI Crude (CL1!) | $73.87/bbl (+$0.35) | +4.4% |
Source: CNBC, Investing.com
The near-flat open on Thursday, following Wednesday’s outsized gains, reflects the dual-sided uncertainty that geopolitical oil shocks tend to produce. The initial leg up captures the worst-case fear — a protracted Hormuz disruption — while the subsequent drift lower reflects the market recalibrating against the reality that oil flows have not yet been physically cut. The Saxo note captured the tension precisely: the risk is “renewed attacks on shipping” or a “broader breakdown” in relations, neither of which has been confirmed as a done deal as of Thursday morning.
For the USO ETF, which tracks near-month WTI futures, Wednesday’s 4.4% WTI gain would have translated directly into the fund’s NAV. Thursday’s more limited price movements followed Wednesday’s sharp gains, while market participants continued to monitor developments. .
What Could Change the Picture
Future oil price movements may continue to be influenced by developments affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, among other market factors. . If U.S. strikes degrade Iran’s capacity to target commercial vessels — or if back-channel diplomacy quietly resumes despite Trump’s public statements — the geopolitical risk premium that drove Wednesday’s 5.4% Brent move may fade back toward pre-escalation levels. Investing.com reported the volatile session without indicating any resolution to the underlying standoff.
Equally, OPEC+ production policy remains a separate variable. Any shift in member output decisions — independent of the Iran situation — could cut across the geopolitical narrative in either direction. The source material does not confirm any scheduled OPEC+ meeting or output change
What’s Next
The near-term direction for Brent and WTI rests on the military and diplomatic track rather than scheduled economic data, but several calendar items have historically moved crude:
- EIA Weekly Petroleum Supply Report — published weekly, typically Wednesdays; the next print will update U.S. crude inventory levels, a standing reference point for the physical supply picture. See EIA for the release schedule.
- U.S.-Iran developments — CENTCOM reporting and Iranian state media responses will be the primary real-time inputs to the Hormuz risk premium. No formal diplomatic calendar item is confirmed in the source material.
CNBC journalists Justina Lee and Sam Meredith are tracking the story; their byline on the original report is timestamped 10:36 PM EDT Wednesday, July 8, 2026, with updates continuing into Thursday morning, CNBC showed.
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