YWO NEWS | MACRO | DEEP DIVE / ANALYSIS
Brent crude futures for September delivery held above $78 per barrel on Thursday morning after US Central Command confirmed another round of strikes on Iranian military targets, with the two sides now exchanging conflicting signals on whether a ceasefire reached less than four weeks ago has fully collapsed, CNBC reported.
The price action — an initial spike that subsequently eased back toward the $78 handle — tracks the whipsaw in the diplomatic signal. The Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively blockaded through most of the conflict, remains the pressure point. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have contributed to higher energy prices. Market participants continue to monitor the potential impact on inflation. .
The Strike Tally and What Trump Said Aboard Air Force One
Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One as he departed RAF Mildenhall on Wednesday, President Trump said US forces had “just hit [Iran] very hard,” characterising the exchange as a 20-to-1 response ratio. Combined over Tuesday and Wednesday’s operations, US forces struck approximately 170 Iranian military targets, according to US Central Command, CNBC reported.
The Tuesday strikes came in retaliation after three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz came under attack. The US Treasury Department moved in parallel, withdrawing a waiver that had previously allowed Iran to sell its oil — a sanction tightening that introduces an additional policy measure that may influence oil supply dynamics.
Trump’s comments on the ceasefire were pointed. At the NATO summit in Ankara earlier Wednesday, alongside NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, he said of the memorandum of understanding agreed less than a month ago: “I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them anymore.” He then appeared to soften that position hours later on the flight home.
“They have very little left, and they want to make a deal so badly. They called a little while ago. They want to make a deal so badly. I just don’t know if they’re worthy of making a deal. I don’t know that they’re going to honor the deal. That’s the problem.” — President Trump, aboard Air Force One, July 8, 2026, per CNBC
When asked directly whether the US and Iran were returning to full-scale military conflict, Trump replied: “I don’t know,” adding that if war resumed, the US would “win it very quickly.”
CNBC said it had reached out to the Iranian government for a response to Trump’s comments.
Tehran Pushes Back, Calls Strikes an MOU Violation
Iran’s Foreign Ministry did respond — not to CNBC, but via a formal statement on Thursday. The ministry said the US strikes constituted a violation of the memorandum of understanding reached less than four weeks ago, and stated Iran’s “determination to defend the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iran and punish the aggressors,” per CNBC.
That statement sits uneasily alongside Trump’s claim that Tehran “called a little while ago” seeking a deal. The differing public statements highlight continuing uncertainty regarding the diplomatic situation.
The Hormuz Premium and What a Prolonged Closure Means for Energy Costs
The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most consequential oil chokepoint. A sustained blockade — which the Centcom statement on Wednesday explicitly referenced, saying strikes were aimed at degrading Iran’s ability to “attack commercial shipping and innocent civilian mariners in the Strait of Hormuz” — may continue to influence crude oil prices while disruptions persist.
Brent holding above $78 on Thursday morning, following the developments, while market participants continued to monitor geopolitical events. . The caveat is that the Treasury’s withdrawal of Iran’s oil-sale waiver — a discrete policy move separate from the military strikes — may affect Iranian oil exports depending on future policy developments.
The inflation dimension that CNBC’s Chloe Taylor flagged is the secondary transmission: a sustained Hormuz premium in energy has historically fed through to headline CPI in import-dependent economies, which may complicate the room central banks have to ease. That linkage has been a running concern through the duration of the conflict, per the same report.
What the Counter-Signal Looks Like
Future oil price movements may continue to be influenced by developments relating to ceasefire negotiations and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. . Trump said Iran “wants to make a deal so badly” and that a deal is possible — his scepticism is about Iranian credibility, not about whether negotiations could resume.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry statement frames the MOU as still legally operative — the language is accusatory toward Washington, not declaratory of withdrawal from the agreement.
What’s Next
The immediate calendar items that could move CL1!, USO, and BNO materially:
- EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report — the US Energy Information Administration publishes US crude inventory and supply data weekly; the next scheduled release can be tracked at EIA. The report will provide updated information on U.S. crude inventories.
- ; Any formal statement from US Central Command or the White House on the status of negotiations — no scheduled date, but Centcom releases can be monitored via primary government channels.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry has been contacted by CNBC for further response, per the report. Any formal reply that either confirms or denies active deal talks would provide additional information regarding the negotiations.
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