商品市場 作者 Fred Razak

3 分鐘

最後更新: Thu Apr 09 2026

油價跌破100美元,美伊停火緩解荷姆茲海峽供應擔憂

油價跌破100美元,美伊停火緩解荷姆茲海峽供應擔憂

原油價格 週一大幅下跌,基準合約均跌破每桶100美元的門檻,此前美國和伊朗同意為期兩週的停火協議,其中包括承諾確保荷姆茲海峽的通行安全,據 CNBC報導。該協議是在巴基斯坦總理參與的外交談判後達成的,已實質性降低了對全球最關鍵能源咽喉要道之一供應中斷的短期擔憂。


背景

荷姆茲海峽處理著全球約20%的海運石油貿易,對該水道的通行構成任何可信的威脅,歷來都會導致能源市場的風險溢價升高。在停火協議宣布之前,由於地緣政治緊張局勢增加了供應中斷的可能性,油價已大幅走高,據 CNBC報導。

停火協議促使市場重新定價,降低了風險溢價。然而,分析師指出,為期兩週的協議僅提供了有限的確定性窗口,潛在的地緣政治局勢仍未解決。鑑於如果談判未能超越初步停火期而緊張局勢可能再次出現,市場參與者可能會仔細權衡該協議的持久性。

看跌者認為,停火協議的逆轉,或荷姆茲海峽運輸的任何中斷,都可能導致風險溢價迅速回升。看漲者則可能指出,更廣泛的外交解決方案有可能在更長的時間範圍內降低供應不確定性。在此階段,這兩種結果都仍然可能。

地緣政治風險與能源價格之間的市場關係是動態的,並可能隨時間而變化。過去的相關性並不保證未來的表現。


關鍵數據

  • WTI原油:根據 CNBC報導,跌破 每桶100美元
  • 。布蘭特原油:根據 CNBC
  • USO (United States Oil Fund): 預計將反映與整體原油跌勢一致的盤中損失;請參閱 路透社 獲取最新ETF數據
  • 100美元關卡歷來是市場關注的焦點,因其具有重要的心理價位意義;其跌破可能引發關注中期倉位的中長期交易員的進一步審視
  • EIA每週石油供應數據仍是供應端發展的固定參考點;最新數據可透過 EIA

市場快照

資產約略水平變動來源
WTI原油低於100.00美元大幅下跌CNBC
布蘭特原油低於100.00美元大幅下跌CNBC
USO原油下跌反映下跌路透
黃金TBC因風險轉移而漲跌互現CNBC
美國股市(期貨)TBC可能獲得支撐路透
美國公債TBC關注避險資金流動路透

註:標記為TBC的水平受實時變動影響。請參考實時數據來源獲取當前價格。


即將發生的事件

交易員和分析師可能會關注以下發展,以獲取能源市場的進一步方向性線索:


獲取預定發布資訊。 風險聲明:

Company Information: YWO (the “Brand”) operates under multiple licenses issued by recognized financial regulatory authorities, ensuring compliance, transparency, and protection for our clients across jurisdictions.
YWO (MU) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (FSC) of Mauritius under the License No. GB25205550. The Company’s registration number is GBC229766 and its registered office is located at 2nd Floor, Suite 201, The Catalyst Cybercity Ebene, Mauritius.
YWO (PTY) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) of South Africa under FSP License No. 54357. The Company’s registration number is 2024/339763/07 and its registered office is located at 29 First Avenue East, Parktown North, Johannesburg, Gauteng, 2193, South Africa.
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